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2015 cotton prices will remain in a dormant state bottoming primarily as a whole

Published on:2015/1/30 11:30:36

Keyword:Spinning machinery, weaving machinery, knitting machinery, dyeing and finishing machinery, chemical fiber machinery, non-woven fabric machinery
Introduction:To enter the 2015 years later, the cotton will have what kind of performance?One, the supply and demand of the new policy study of 1, the balance of s...

to 2015 years later, what about the performance of the cotton?

a, supply and demand of the new policy of

Analysis of supply and demand balance of 1,

to

three years purchasing and led to the domestic cotton output amplifier, and the price of deviation and exciting downstream enterprises importing cotton, causes our country into the world's largest cotton inventory countries.Perhaps a few years in the future will be to restore the healthy development of the cotton industry chain gives priority to tone, and to timely digest the inventory is complementary strategy.

1) cotton production under the new policy expected strong

Cotton picking period has ended in 2014,

this year, the decline in cotton production estimates in the previously estimated 6.8 million tons of to reduce to the latest estimate of 6.49 million tons, compare with past yield declines of 4%.Because of the effect of direct subsidies policy, xinjiang with the output of the mainland, the planting area of change is very different, in mainland China produced 1.82 million tons, is past lose 46%, xinjiang production of 4.67 million tons, a 19% increase in the past.Unexpected is xinjiang area increased, yield increase, but because the cotton quality issue, yield a 7.6% drop from the past, only 126.87 kg\/mu (whole xinjiang, including pick up cotton machine).

according to the investigation of our country cotton information network, the 2015 national cotton planting intentions covers an area of 3.36 million hectares, down 14.5% year on year.Lord if increase subsidies for mainland big as xinjiang, estimates over the next year, the xinjiang cotton planting and stable development trend is stronger than the mainland.Under the strong production expected, if demand for cotton slightly better in the future, will be good future cotton prices, but the positive need long fermentation period, the first to focus on for the next planting area of the hype.

Decline in

with production, in the face of the market area, farmers should pay more attention to the quality problem of the cotton, to comply with the requirements, but there are some problems in xinjiang cotton quality this year.In cotton processing enterprise notary inspection test results show that this year XinJiangMian quality not high, level 3 cotton compared to a large, secondary cotton percentage decline.To pure cotton after sales period, this will cause the polarization of the price of cotton, a high-end cotton price is hard to find and mid-range suppressed cotton prices.And because of demand purchase low-end cotton may eventually flow direction is the futures market, cause of the warehouse receipt to futures disk pressure.

2) restrict imports, domestic cotton consumption

for 3 years purchasing and domestic cotton prices, resulting in significantly higher than international prices, when spreads the biggest domestic cotton prices higher than smooth quasi tax imported cotton nearly 4900 yuan\/ton, plus the cotton Australian cotton quality is better than domestic cotton, attract the downstream textile enterprises to choose using imports of cotton production, so in the purchase of three years of the Chinese and foreign cotton imports increased significant, impact on the whole industrial chain.

but in 2015, the situation will be changed again.Policy decision in addition to distribute according to add into the world trade organization (wto) [microblogging] promised 894000 tonnes of tariff import quotas and meet the needs of the textile cotton assorting, no longer issue import quotas, and will guide the domestic textile enterprises by domestic cotton.At this height under the premise of policy unchanged, cotton imports of 894000 tons in 2015, only 17% of the imports in 2012.

the main intention is to hope that through this policy to reduce imported cotton outside, save the domestic cotton market.The present domestic cotton prices fell close to the international cotton prices, but because this year to keep up with the downstream XinJiangMian quality problem of wait-and-see psychology, domestic sales progress is very slow, plus when falling tax imports has not losses, many enterprises choose to import American cotton, recently a few weeks the beauty of the USDA cotton export data is strong, a major importer for our country.But under the policy guidance, cotton imports will fall, and the domestic textile enterprises can also be purchased in domestic cotton, the price is relatively reasonable to alleviate the condition of the high cost in recent years, increase their market competitiveness, let the market have a virtuous circle, but the work is not achieved overnight, need a long time to realize, to long-term far month contracts.

3) poor consumption estimation, the downstream FangQi

with this in the future

textile PMI index

zheshang futures (annual report) : hides cotton prices look forward to the new normal for a New Year of

there was a significant improvement in recent cotton manufacturing PMI, the downstream textile enterprises of the machine with new orders, there is better, to show the whole industry in the recent state is improving.If conditions keep improving, into the pure cotton after sales period will improve the present cotton unsalable condition.

while the overall industry data show that textile industry has improved, but the cotton association estimates were 14\/15 of the annual consumption in the first 8.137 million tons to 7.8 million tons, fell by 4% overall.Introduces the current market outlook is still not optimistic to the industry, industry overall losses, such as excess capacity, replace the product impact are industry experience will meet the problem better, this year under the condition of the new policy, industry how tight and the layout of the policy change itself will also be crucial.

in 2015, our country will enter the new normal, cotton prices pilot as purpose, will also with the wave of reform to move into the new normal, then what is the new normal cotton?As the income of the farmers to reduce, the majority of farmers will choose to switch to or migrant workers, the area of cotton with output must fall, and under the new policy support, the xinjiang region into scale, mechanization of cotton under will become the new normal will be development trend.Because the perennial hoarded caused the drawbacks of the industrial chain, makes the market pessimistic predictions on the future, the parties do not look good on consumption, in front of the whole industry comprehensive improvement must need a metamorphosis.The present policy for the whole industry, led Yang jiye slowly into a virtuous cycle.Or this year will be the industry to improve the low before the finishing stage.

2, the market hot spots with the rhythm of

Because the Spring Festival this year is

, until now still no lit the enthusiasm of the first stock enterprise, spot sales is still in a poor state, may this year the first stock boom will delay back.As usual to the front of the Spring Festival, farmers will sell storage due to the arrival of the traditional festival in their own homes of seed cotton, and cotton farmers generally regardless of price, mainly selling off, easy to cause the loss of the price.In a move that will reduce the spot price, a move down the warehouse cost pressure.

After the Spring Festival of

, farmers will move into cotton spring sowing stage, then the parties will focus to focus on next year's planting area estimation.Because of the effect of direct subsidies policy, will speed up the mainland planting area is reduced, and the xinjiang region is relatively stable, it will ignite the next round of production forecast.If production forecast is very strong, this will affect the subsequent keep contract.

as of August 31, 2014 cast store, domestic cotton roughly 10 million tons of reserves, the normal annual land reserves in 300-6 million tons.Cotton throw reservoir is the national control market supply, control the market price is one of the main means, and throw the discretion of the store price also will have a larger impact on the market, to a certain extent.Such major cotton reserves is cotton prices above a sickle, and this year we don't know when will the sickle to fall.Policies published by march this year will not enter the store, let the unstable factors on the point in time, price and quantity are more speculative.3 months need to pay attention to the store selling the hype, but because of the policy guidance is hope to improve the development of cotton industry chain, on the basis of the height to estimate state will not appear in cotton prices has not caused substantial increase FangQi applied pressure to reservoir.

Second, the conclusion

, eliminating the influence of not sure factors behind store list from the balance of supply and demand, without additional quota issue, or 2015 for tight balance, in the cotton policy gradually let go of competitive situation, inside and outside the correlation coefficient of cotton prices will increase again, below the cost as the support, while above need to be mindful country store, the price will be difficult to have significantly fluctuate space.The price of the actual operation experience may be due to a variety of short-term factors and changes in short-term strength and amplification.In front of the cotton industry chain adjustment, cotton prices will remain in a dormant state in 2015, the overall bottoming.


Keyword:Spinning machinery, weaving machinery, knitting machinery, dyeing and finishing machinery, chemical fiber machinery, non-woven fabric machinery

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