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Textile BaiLong east will benefit from the environment

Published on:2015/1/30 11:26:38

Keyword:Textiles, clothing, cotton spinning, spinning, dyeing and printing, China textile, viscose fiber, cotton, yarn, textile industry
Introduction:In textile manufacturing high cost factor of periodic run down since 2010, is expected to start in 2015 inversion.Since 2010, the cotton textile enter...

in textile manufacturing high cost factor of periodic run down since 2010, is expected to start in 2015 reversal.Since 2010, the cotton textile enterprises continue to increase the high cost of predicament, 2008-2014, China's textile clothing exports year-on-year growth of 4.72%, 10% and 4.72% respectively, 25%, 4.32%, 11.41%, 4.32%, and Vietnam in the same period of textile clothing exports year-on-year growth since 2009, the average of over 40%, domestic cost (labor, environmental protection, raw materials, etc.) to keep rising in China's textile industry's international competitiveness.As the human cost, environmental cost natural growth peak, the main raw materials of cotton prices, textile manufacturing company is expected to be reversed in 2015, improve the international competitiveness.

??Inside and outside the cotton prices upside down (domestic cotton prices higher than international prices) become interference cotton textile enterprise operation since 2012, the most important factor direct subsidies policy will significantly suppressed cotton prices at home and abroad is poor;Cotton prices fell more than 30% since 2014, considering the domestic cotton reserves still has about 10 million tons, is expected in the future 2 years cotton big probability in the low range trade, domestic and international difference of cotton prices have dropped significantly.

??In textile industry cluster in jiangsu, zhejiang, fujian staff average wages in manufacturing employment, for example, 1995-1999 rose by an average of 12%, 13% and 14% respectively, and the data from 2000 to 2004 are 13%, 10% and 13% respectively;In 2005-2009 average annual increase of 13%, 12% and 11% respectively, but 2010 years later, in 2010-2013, Hong Kong and the data are greatly increased to 18%, 16%, 17%;Besides the natural growth of wages, welfare spending in the corporate welfare for population employment structure changes significantly higher leisure entertainment expenses for room and board (employees).From the existing data, in recent years, the textile enterprise management cost is in line with income growth level, we expect to see wages in manufacturing personnel in the future or will be stable in the average annual growth of around 10%, with basic consistent income growth;But the human cost of southeast Asian nations has accelerated rise, (municipality directly under the central government) in Vietnam, a region of the minimum wage, for example, in 2011-2014, the minimum wage has shield shield raised from 1.55 million to 1.55 million, up nearly 80%.

??In addition to the salary, the cost of production in recent years the environmental costs also increase significantly, printing and dyeing industry cluster in zhejiang shaoxing, for example, ke bridge (shaoxing more than 70% of the printing and dyeing enterprises in shaoxing city with ke bridge) wastewater treatment sector in 2014 the latest sewage treatment cost for 3 yuan\/ton cost of benchmark tons of infected water concentration, the higher the cost, to a maximum of 10 yuan\/ton;If the printing and dyeing enterprises choose to build sewage treatment equipment, the cost is about 1.5 to 2 yuan\/ton, investment scale is in commonly must level, equipment investment accounted for about 5% of the income scale - 10%.We conclude that the current textile enterprise environmental pressure have peaked.

??Is expected to improve the overall management of textile manufacturing environment.As the export tax rebates, depreciation expected to keep improving, the competitiveness of Chinese textile industry is expected to be further improved.

??In March 1985 the state council formally lifted the export tax rebate policy, and on April 1, 1985 implementation;Through frequent adjustment, textile clothing export tax rebates is roughly last in the range of 5% 17% of the wave.The adjustment of export tax rebates to serve the country need the adjustment of export structure, textile clothing, for example, to get rid of the Asian financial crisis in 1998, in January 1998 countries will textile clothing export tax rebates by 6% to 11%;In 2005 China's textile clothing export gold peak, to reduce the trade surplus, the 2006 national textile export tax rebates fell from 13% to 13%, 2007 down to 5% (viscose);In 2008 after the outbreak of the financial crisis, export tax rebates of viscose fiber by 5% to 14% again.The export tax refund rate increased to 17% from 16% in 2009, the main if for the past 3 years textile clothing exports remain weak, mid-range order to accelerate the flow to the southeast Asian countries and other hostile environments.On December 31, 2014, the export tax rebates by 16% to 17% (part of the textile clothing), from the industry perspective is good to improve the international competitiveness.

??On January 26, onshore and offshore RMB both sharply lower.The onshore jumped more than 200 points, the lowest reached 6.2531, a new low since June last year.

??Offshore renminbi fell more than 100 points.Yuan a middle price discount of 1.79% at sight, historically the biggest record.Industry main textile manufacturing companies, most enterprises export ratio over 40%, and exports are settled in dollars, basic if RMB devaluation, partly for export-oriented enterprise's international competitiveness.

??BaiLong Oriental as leading enterprises, will benefit from the textile manufacturing environment positive enough.We raised the company's rating, the first is concluded that the cotton textile enterprises in 2015, the performance of the elastic, derived from the increase in orders, gross margin improved, BaiLong Orient, as one of the leading enterprises, we concluded that the results have a certain flexibility.Colored spun yarn is essentially an optional consumer goods (colored spun yarn should be used in the brand of A product series, optional, elasticity), relative to lutai A yarn-dyed fabric products, more flexible;Second, in 2015 under the cotton prices will lower colored spun yarn product prices, as an alternative of consumer goods, colored spun yarn for ordinary yarn instead of the role is more prominent, again, benefit increasing efforts on southern new capacity, capacity increase will significantly benefit the company in 2016 performance;In addition the company since 2014, share price increase is relatively small (BaiLong, lutai, spinning 2014 vosges, waffer, China year-to-date gains were 19%, 19.4%, 30%, 41%, 76%).

??In the long run, industrial layout adjustment of performance is positive effect will gradually release: in response to rising labor costs and the internal and external factors such as cotton hangs the negative effect on the profit space, company in the domestic color cotton spinning project investment scale at the same time, speed up the productivity layout in southeast Asia.Along with the new production base in Vietnam gradually put into use, cheap raw material, labor and mass production is expected to consolidate its cost advantages, at the same time, the company keep advancing technology upgrading and new series product research and development, customized service promotion, performance is expected to support the follow-up steady growth.

??2014-16 years it is expected that the company belongs to the parent company net profit were 4.46, 5.20, 665 million yuan, with increased to 12.20%, 16.61%, 27.98%, corresponding to the EPS were 0.59, 0.69, 0.59 yuan.Since 2010, the textile industry the influence factors of periodic down, down demand, cost, cotton prices at home and abroad, have been significantly weakened and overseas demand inventory adjustments to maintain recovery, domestic brand has ended, the rapid rise of the human cost of southeast Asian nations but human into domestic growth this year has been stable, environmental cost of MCP - T370 has peaked, the policy of direct subsidies rules will encourage domestic cotton prices fell sharply, the industry as a whole in valuations improve logic.Considering the relevant comparable company 15 years PE interval in 10 x 17 x, provide the company slightly higher than the average valuations, 2015 22 xpe, corresponding purpose price is 15.25 yuan, to buy rating.

Keyword:Textiles, clothing, cotton spinning, spinning, dyeing and printing, China textile, viscose fiber, cotton, yarn, textile industry

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