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Analytic: can XinJiangMian bottomed out or not?

Published on:2015/1/27 9:22:25

Keyword:Cotton, markets, cotton prices, cotton yarn, situation, polyester\/cotton yarn, garments, statistics, textile mills
Introduction:On the cotton industry chain, subsidies for the upstream cotton farmers have planted, and subsidies for agricultural machinery and tools, to the downs...

On the cotton industry chain, subsidies for the upstream cotton farmers have planted, and subsidies for agricultural machinery and tools, to the downstream cotton textile enterprise with import quotas, export tax rebates, such as national national cotton reserves into a series of supporting policies, like cotton processing enterprises always play alone & other;My grandma not pain love & throughout;The role of.

For 2014\/15 of the cotton market situation, the cotton textile enterprise and cotton traders as part of the cotton mills are pessimistic, and even some agency said 2015 XinJiangMian is difficult to see a peak of 15000 yuan\/ton, low could break 12000 yuan\/ton.The author thinks that, in March 2015 the future domestic xinjiang cotton prices is likely to bottom out, domestic and foreign markets will & other;Hand in hand & throughout;Rose, cotton yarn, grey cloth whole and inflation, so so think is based on the following analysis:

A, XinJiangMian relative Australian cotton, the cotton on the quality of disadvantage though rose slightly, but the advantage in price and supply also increased, XinJiangMian will still be 2014\/15 cotton textile enterprise of the cotton & other;A tower of strength & throughout;.To arrive at the port in January and February 2015 the number of American cotton significantly below expectations, Qingdao, zhangjiagang port, such as cotton and even & other;One ticket is hard to find & throughout;, but the cotton price of 16000-16400 yuan\/ton is higher than level 2129 mainland library XinJiangMian quotation above 1500 yuan\/ton, SM Australian cotton level is higher than XinJiangMian above 3000 yuan\/ton, such a high price, how spinning mill cannot make up for.As of January 8, 2015, American cotton export has achieved about 87%, the buyer of the contract amount is about 415000 tons, accounting for 22.57% of the American cotton has exports, countries even 1-1% tariff issued in February 894000 tons of cotton import quotas, if you want to import a lot of beautiful cotton to also want to take the goods from the hand of the cotton, a high price.Indian cotton?Because there are a lot of state reserve cotton block, with a total of 894000 tons of quota restrictions, cotton prices again low, even if India domestic FangQi procurement will weigh what does light or heavy, besides India cotton and & other;The minimum seed cotton purchase & throughout;Palm, is unlikely to make the global buyers accounted for cheap.And a lot of 2014\/15 XinJiangMian has shipped to the warehouse on the mainland, delivery timeliness guaranteed, will be expected to 3 - August XinJiangMian from imports of cotton & other;Rob class position & throughout;In the period.

2, 2013\/14, 2014\/15, the market decline in cotton consumption ability to keep good in our country, but for some institutions or the investment department of less than 6 million and even 5.5 million tons of the author is not credulous, cotton spinning industry like the stock market in our country the same never lack of funds, lack of only opportunity.Learned, by November 2014 - January 2015 cotton sharp decline in 2500-3000 yuan\/ton, the influence of many spinning cotton textile enterprise profit of 2000 yuan\/ton, grey cloth net profit also in 0.30 to 0.50 yuan per meter.Although the cotton yarn, grey cloth, clinch a deal the price then passive drops, profit is fully compressed, but efficiency is significantly better than 2014 years ago, two quarters, as long as there is order there is profit, cotton yarn, grey cloth, so the author's opinion is in November 2014 - January 2015 small and medium-sized FangQi boot status not only present rebound instead deteriorate further.China cotton textile factory cluster in guangdong, jiangsu and zhejiang, shandong, henan and hebei, hubei, economy is relatively developed areas, such as small and medium-sized cotton textile factory if large collapse, then the number of unemployed, laid-off workers will also be very handsome, at least as of late January before around about there are not many reports.Other, polyester staple fiber as a result of crude oil has fallen dramatically dropped to 6900 yuan\/tons, equivalent to level 2 half the price of cotton in xinjiang, FangQi & other;Abandon throughout with polyester & cotton;The proportion of greatly increased.As is known to all, the mill & other;Change throughout with polyester & cotton;General equipment reform needs a week to two weeks, and to a certain amount of money, in cotton, polyester cotton yarn market is not clear, just in order to reduce the raw materials, product inventory capital pressure & other;Abandon throughout with polyester & cotton;The ratio of how many?And released from the customs statistics, China's exports in December 2014, textile yarn, fabric and production of $9.754 billion, rose 0.17%, year-on-year increase of 2.17%, and exports apparel and clothing accessories of $15.92 billion, down 2.09% year on year, that is to say, polyester\/cotton yarn, twill blends, such as the export of chemical fiber products and there is no obvious growth.

Three, the decline of the world and our country cotton acreage in 2015 will be the subject of speculation, the parties to the 2015\/16 high grade cotton supply and demand for cotton growing worries the economy rebounded, once appear, the weather, cotton may well become a commodity bottoms out & other;Vanguard & throughout;.According to concerning sectional statistic, half 2015 Australian cotton planting area, yield down to more than 40, ten thousand tons, while U.S. soybean, maize yields significantly higher than that of cotton, so the decline in cotton acreage is expected 20-30%.India to sell cotton difficult problem is very outstanding, 2015 farmers planting intentions is not very optimistic.According to the national cotton market monitoring system in cotton planting intentions, according to a survey conducted by national 2015 annual national cotton area of 2015 mu, fell 9.151 million mu, fell 14.5%.Recent related people in xinjiang production and construction corps, 2015\/16 corps cotton production will be changed from 1.76 million tons in 2014 to 2014 tons, a drop of 31.8%, and the southern xinjiang aksu and kashi in jujube, melon and fruit and corn, wheat and other crops planting base gradually expanding, not suitable for planting cotton cotton will be released, the planting area of decline or greater.

In conclusion, the author thinks that, 2014\/15, in three or four times in cotton production processing ability, comprehensive national exit in the store policy, cotton textile, clothes, and even the entire industry into & other;Winter & throughout;The market environment, cotton enterprises return & other;Free-standing self-improvement & throughout;, dominate the market supply and demand of thought transformation also need a experience.But xinjiang cotton enterprises met by challenges, setbacks is a stage, the so-called & other;What does not reach the designated position, not up & throughout;, there is no desperate epigenetic courage, cotton industry there would be no & otherThroughout the gyrations &;The opportunity.

Keyword:Cotton, markets, cotton prices, cotton yarn, situation, polyester\/cotton yarn, garments, statistics, textile mills

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