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The three major factors supporting cotton textile industry chain to recover next year

Published on:2015/1/27 9:16:41

Keyword:Cotton, cotton, market, price
Introduction:The three factors influencing the fluctuations in prices, supply and demand, policy, capital, in 2015, average annual change: cotton policy to direct ...

The three factors influencing the fluctuations in prices, supply and demand, policy, capital, in 2015, average annual change: cotton policy to direct subsidies, cotton prices have fallen by 30% since 2014.2011-2013 after three consecutive annual cotton purchase, the present domestic scale of national cotton reserves in more than 1000 1000 tons, at a historic day volume level, considering the demand of cotton is a year of China in 6.5 million tons - 7.5 million tons, is expected in 2015 will be in & other;Supply significantly greater than the demand & throughout;The state;With cotton prices nearing the bottom of the historical position, enterprise or industry will enlarge the size of the cotton purchase.

Falling prices enterprise short-term results: because the customer orders, cotton textile enterprise's gross margin increase would have a certain resistance, orders, the gross margin pressure on cotton textile enterprise 3, 4 quarter 2014 results bring certain suppression effect.

Policy support, the palm is expected by the domestic cotton cost and differential prices remain at 1500-2000 yuan\/ton the reasonable range of the three major factors, combining with the current prices, is expected in 2015 will be in a tight range, low prices for domestic cotton interval is 13000-13500 yuan\/ton, basic is in relatively stable between 2005 and 2008 was a record low.2015 concentrated fill inventory demand will drive the industry chain downstream recovery growth;In addition, according to historical experience, fluctuations in prices of cotton supply and demand, domestic enterprises inventory size, all have significant cyclical impact, at the bottom of the industry enterprise with cotton historical forecast and the arrival of additional raw material purchasing power, to further enlarge sales growth.

The medium term, cotton textile enterprise since 2010, the high cost of trouble, is expected to start in 2015 reversal: since 2010, the cotton textile enterprises continue to increase the high cost of trouble, as the human cost, environmental cost natural growth peak, the main raw materials of cotton prices, cotton textile enterprises is expected to be reversed in 2015, improve the international competitiveness.And the early stage of the process of consolidation, on a smaller scale, management strength relatively weak exit the market competition of enterprise, industry concentration is expected to improve as a whole.Main unsure factors: the demand of overseas market is not up to expectations, cotton prices downward speed too slow.
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